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内容简介:Economic ResearchJanuary 22, 2021Global Data Watch Indicators point to a weaker and more divergent start to the year US fiscal stimulus, 外汇策略 fading second-wave bounce expected in Mar/Apr G-3 central bank low-for-long strategies gain modest traction Next week: Wide 4Q 外汇策略 外汇策略 外汇策略 GDP gaps: US strength vs. Europe.

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J.P. 摩根-全球宏观策略之全球宏观数据观察-2021.1.22-82页.pdf

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内容简介:Economic ResearchJanuary 22, 2021Global Data Watch Indicators point to a weaker and more divergent start to the year US fiscal stimulus, fading second-wave bounce expected in Mar/Apr G-3 central bank low-for-long strategies gain modest traction Next week: Wide 4Q GDP gaps: US strength vs. Europe.

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Today is january 8th 2015
here are the calculated
potential turn or acceleration
times for the S and P 500
emini futures

Several of the times are
similar to yesterday according
to the calculations by our
algorithm but this
does not mean that
the market will turn in the
same direction if the times
are accurate

they could be the exact opposite as does happen

remember all the times can come up to 10 minutes early or late

the overnight times are 144 am 344 am 427 am 507am
628 am 807 am 827 am
the day session or normal market hour times are
1103 am 1148 am 1340 PM 1427 PM

all times are New York Eastern time

as always these are not standalone and should be used
with normal indicators to confirm but are very helful to
know as they are known in advance

these times are provided for your entertainment and educational purposes
only and to demonstrate the capabilities of our algorithms
and should not be traded.
Do so 外汇策略 at your own risk

thank you
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A trader who thinks that the EUR/USD strike price will close at or above 1.2500 at 3:00 p.m. can buy a call option on that outcome. A trader who thinks that the EUR/USD strike price will close at or below 1.2500 at 3:00 p.m. can buy a put option or sell the contract.

At 2:00 p.m. the 外汇策略 EUR/USD spot price is 1.2490. the trader believes this will increase, so he buys 10 call options for EUR/USD at or above 1.2500 at 3:00 p.m. at a cost of $40 each.

The risk involved in this trade is known. The trader’s gross profit/loss follows the ‘all or nothing’ principle. He can lose all the money he invested, which in this case is $40 x 10 = $400, or make a gross profit of $100 x 10 = $1000. If the EUR/USD strike price will close at or above 1.2500 at 3:00 p.m. the trader's net profit will be the payoff at expiry minus the cost of the option: $1000 - $400 = $600.

The trader can also 外汇策略 choose to liquidate (buy or sell to close) his position prior to expiration, at which point the option value is not guaranteed to be $100. The larger the gap between the spot price and the strike price, the value of the option decreases, as the 外汇策略 option is less likely to expire in the money.

In this example, at 3:00 p.m. the spot has risen to 1.2505. The option has expired in the money and the gross payoff is $1000. The trader's net profit is $600.
[edit] 外汇策略 Black-Scholes Valuation

In the Black-Scholes model, the price of the option can be found by the formulas below.[11] In these, S is the initial stock price, K denotes the strike price, T is the time to maturity, q is the dividend rate, r is the risk-free interest rate and \sigma is the volatility. \Phi denotes the cumulative distribution function of the normal distribution,