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什么是熊市(Bear Market)?

熊市定義:當股市受到「基本面」的影響,從最高點下跌 20% 或以上時,稱為熊市市場!

Learning English

Li
Hello, this is Authentic Real English, with me Li… and… Neil! … Neil? Neil?

Neil
Yeah. Sorry, Li. Hi everyone! Yeah.

Li
What's taking all your attention? You can't stop looking at your smartphone!

Neil
Yeah. It's the stock exchange. I'm waiting to see if my shares have gone up. I want to be rich!

Li
Oh, yeah. But you have 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? to remember that the stock market can be very volatile. It means the value of shares can go down as well as up. How do you know 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? if the market is good for investors? 股市浮动太大,很难把握呀。你怎么知道什么时候好,什么时候对投资者利呢?

Neil
Well, experts say it's 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? a bull market when the price of shares on the stock market is rising. And 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? they say it's a bear market when the price of shares on the stock market is falling.

Li
这么说股市看涨时就被称为牛市 a bull market;而股市行情看跌时则被称为熊市 a bear market。Interesting. I wonder why.

Neil
Well, it's easy to understand. Think about the way these animals attack. The bull thrusts its horns up into the air.

Li
Oh, yes, 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? that's frightening.

Neil
It is, yes. And the bear, on the other hand, swipes its paws down, so the shares go down. Do you get it?

Li
Yes, now I do. 原来这两个词来自动物搏斗的姿势。很有道理。Let's hear some examples of how these expressions are used.

Examples
Stocks rose in early trading. It was a bull market 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? which stunned even the most pessimistic analysts. The financial crisis might be over.

The index of the UK's biggest 100 companies, the FTSE 100, has fallen 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? 15% in the last few months. However, we can only call it a bear market when the index drops 20% or more.

Neil
So you see, a bear market for when values are falling, and a bull market for when they're 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? rising.

Li
Neil, you are not a big investor and you are not 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? exactly an expert in high finances, are you?

Neil
Well. no, not really.

Li
Stop dreaming. If you like animals so much, let's spend the afternoon at the zoo.

Neil
Well, that is a good idea! But could we stop by my stock broker's office on the way?

Li
You are really hooked on this, aren't you? Let's go. Bye!

什么是熊市(Bear Market)?

我們應該如何看待熊市? How Should We Think About Bear Markets?

Charles Cheng, CPA

As 2021 draws to a close, world equity markets are likely to finish the year in the positive and with an above average annual return despite the rough performance of some sectors and geographies like emerging markets. For over 12 years world equity markets have been in an almost continual bull market with the exception of the brief COVID related crash in March 2020. As bear markets are an inevitability to occur sometime, a question that most investors ask themselves is when the next one might happen and how they should prepare for it.

隨著2021年接近尾聲,儘管新興市場等一些行業和地區表現不佳,但世界股市可能會在正收益中結束這一年,並獲得高於平均水準的年度回報。 除了2020年3月與COVID相關的短暫崩盤之外,世界股市在過去的12年裡一直處於幾乎持續的牛市中。 由於熊市是不可避免地會在某個時間點發生,因此大多數投資者問自己的一個問題是下一個熊市將在何時到來? 以及他們應該如何準備。

MSCI All Country World Index 1986-2021

MSCI 所有國家世界指數 1986-2021

Bear markets are technically defined as a prolonged period (usually 2 months) in which the market has fallen by over 20%. By this definition, the largest stock market in the world, the US equity market, has had five bear markets (excluding 2020) and six bull markets since 1968. Here are some thoughts and observations about bear markets both historically and going forward.

熊市在技術上被定義為在一段時間內 (通常為2個月)市場跌幅超過20%。 根據這個定義,世界上最大的股票市場 — 美國股票市場,自 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? 1968 年以來經歷了五個熊市 (不包括2020年) 和6個牛市。 以下是對熊市歷史和未來的一些想法和觀察:

Bear markets happen much faster and typically last much shorter than bull markets. While bull markets usually last for over 5-8 years, bear markets range from a few months to several years. While this is generally true for global markets, one notable exception was the bear market in Japan which has lasted several decades due to chronic economic deflation and financial stagnation.

熊市發生得更快,而且持續時間通常比牛市短得多。 牛市通常持續 5-8 年以上,而熊市則持續數月至數年不等。 雖然全球市場普遍如此,但一個值得注意的例外是日本的熊市,由於長期的經濟通縮和金融停滯,熊市已經持續了幾十年。

The most severe and prolonged bear markets happen in conjunction with an economic recession, such as in 2000 and 2008 globally.

Markets don’t 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? simply collapse by themselves when valuation of assets becomes too high. Rather, there has to be some sort of trigger to stop the positive feedback loop of rising asset prices and capital market financing, whether its because of higher interest 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? rates resulting in tight money, an external event like a global pandemic, or a market system failure like in the 1987 Black Monday crash or 1998 Asian financial crisis. However, elevated valuations can influence how far and fast the market does 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? fall when the crash happens.

當資產估值過高時,市場不會簡單地自行崩潰。 相反,必須有某種觸發因素來阻止不斷上漲的資產價格和資本市場融資的正反饋循環,無論是因為利率上升導致資金緊張、全球大流行等外部事件,還是市場體系失靈比如 1987 年的黑色星期一崩盤或 1998 年的亞洲金融危機。 然而,高估值會影響崩盤時市場下跌的幅度和速度。

So when will the next bear market come? No one knows and it could take years- but, given the above observations, a likely scenario would be the following: Economic 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? activity causes central banks around the world to raise interest rates to a point where financing dries up to companies that need it most. This causes creditors 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? to become more defensive which tightens money for other companies and reverses the credit cycle. Economies go into recession and central banks are forced to loosen monetary policy and governments try to implement fiscal policy. This eventually leads to a recovery which is preceded by a financial market bottom.

那麼下一次熊市將何時到來? 沒有人知道,這可能需要數年時間 — 但是,鑑於上述觀察,一種可能的情況如下: 經濟活動導致世界各地的中央銀行將利率提高到融資枯竭的地步,而最需要融資的公司將無法獲得貸款。 這會導致債權人變得更具防禦性,從而收緊其他公司的資金並扭轉信貸週期、經濟陷入衰退、中央銀行被迫放鬆貨幣政策、政府試圖實施財政政策。 而這些措施總是會於市場觸底後發生。

Therefore, investors can prepare in the following ways:

Take only enough investment risk that you are not forced to sell out of panic during the next downturn.

Don’t overreact to market volatility, especially that which is not related to a potential change in the credit cycle or economic recession.

If reducing portfolio risk 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? during a downturn is part of your investment strategy, make sure you have a plan for quickly getting back into the market as to not lose more 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? in terms of opportunity cost.

This article reflects the personal views of the 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? author and not that of any firm, and should not be viewed as an investment recommendation.

熊市是什麼?熊市定義?熊市通常持續多久?熊市關鍵指標!

展開

俗話說的好:「知己知彼 百戰百勝」,胡適先生也曾經說過:「要怎麼收穫 先怎麼栽」,聖經 詩篇126:5:「凡流淚撒種、必歡呼收割」。

自 2008 年以來,我們經歷了十年以上的上漲,中間有許多次又急又猛的修正,但每次都是關關難過 但是關關不說 關關過,每次大跌,報章媒體總會寫:熊市到來!到底熊市是什麼?投資人為什麼害怕熊市?投資人所懼怕的熊市(空頭),到底有哪些特性值得觀察呢?我們就來好好剖析剖析~

熊市是什麼?熊市定義?

熊市定義:當股市受到「基本面」的影響,從最高點下跌 20% 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? 或以上時,稱為熊市市場!

牛熊市歷史數據

熊市發生時間?

很多人都以為,熊市是經濟發生衰退之後,股市下跌約 20% 或以上,但事實上熊市通常在經濟衰退前幾個月先行開始。可以從下表觀察發現,股市先反應景氣,股市高點後才會發生景氣高點。

熊市通常在經濟衰退之前開始!

熊市過往數據?

百分之二

在熊市中,股市通常每月下跌約 2%,而非突然出現急劇下跌,如果每月急劇下降超過 2%,那麼所經歷的可能只是股市的短期修正,而非真正熊市。

三分之二/三分之一

分析歷史熊市,觀察到大約三分之一的跌勢往往發生在熊市的前三分之二,三分之二的跌幅發生在熊市期間的最後三分之一。因此,錯過最初的跌幅可能並不那麼重要,因為熊市末期經常出現更可怕的跌幅。自 1960 年以來, 美股每歷經一次下跌就會迎來一波反彈,儘管過去反彈後的平均漲幅約能抵銷先前平均 9% 的跌幅,但隨之而來的主要修正暴跌平均約為 34%!

Learning English

Li
Hello, this is Authentic Real English, with me Li… and… Neil! … Neil? Neil?

Neil
Yeah. Sorry, Li. Hi everyone! Yeah.

Li
What's taking all your attention? You can't stop looking at your smartphone!

Neil
Yeah. It's the stock exchange. I'什么是熊市(Bear Market)? m waiting to see if my shares have gone up. I want to be rich!

Li
Oh, yeah. But you have to remember that the stock 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? market can be very volatile. It means the value of shares can go down 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? as well as up. How do you know if the market is good for investors? 股市浮动太大,很难把握呀。你怎么知道什么时候好,什么时候对投资者利呢?

Neil
Well, experts say it's a bull market when the price of shares on the stock market is rising. And they say it's a bear market when the price of shares on the stock market is falling.

Li
这么说股市看涨时就被称为牛市 a bull market;而股市行情看跌时则被称为熊市 a bear market。Interesting. I wonder why.

Neil
Well, it's easy to understand. Think about the way these animals attack. The bull thrusts its horns up into the air.

Li
Oh, yes, that's frightening.

Neil
It 什么是熊市(Bear Market)? is, yes. And the bear, on the other hand, swipes its paws down, so the shares go down. Do you get it?

Li
Yes, now I do. 原来这两个词来自动物搏斗的姿势。很有道理。Let's hear some examples of how these expressions are used.

Examples
Stocks rose in early trading. It was a bull market which stunned even the most pessimistic analysts. The financial crisis might be over.

The index of the UK's biggest 100 companies, the FTSE 100, has fallen 15% in the last few months. However, we can only call it a bear market when the index drops 20% or more.

Neil
So you see, a bear market for when values are falling, and a bull market for when they're rising.

Li
Neil, you are not a big investor and you are not exactly an expert in high finances, are you?

Neil
Well. no, not really.

Li
Stop dreaming. If you like animals so much, let's spend the afternoon at the zoo.

Neil
Well, that is a good idea! But could we stop by my stock broker's office on the way?

Li
You are really hooked on this, aren't you? Let's go. Bye!